Do Leander ISD's middle and high schools have room?

In short

• Middle schools are about 86% full this year. The demographer expects about 76% by 2036-37 (our math).¹²
• High schools are about 90% full this year. The forecast is about 78% by 2036-37 (our math).³²
• A few schools go the other way. Danielson and Stiles middle schools and Glenn and Rouse high schools are expected to be over capacity in 2036-37.¹³

Numbers marked “our math” are our estimates, not official figures. The notes show the inputs and the steps.

How it works

• Each fall a demographer forecasts students for each school for the next 10 years. The district paid an outside firm, PASA, for the fall 2026 study.¹
• “Capacity” is how many students a building is designed to hold. “Utilization” is students divided by capacity.¹
• The forecast counts students where they attend, after transfers in and out.¹

What the numbers show

Middle school	Capacity	2026-27	2036-37 forecast	2036-37 percent full
Canyon Ridge	1,358	842	544	40%
Cedar Park	1,358	1,413	964	71%
Danielson	1,358	1,084	1,496	110%
Four Points	958	580	519	54%
Henry	1,358	1,226	709	52%
Leander	1,200	1,013	1,123	94%
Running Brushy	1,208	1,180	785	65%
Stiles	1,358	1,588	1,556	115%
Wiley	1,358	991	1,025	75%

High school	Capacity	2026-27	2036-37 forecast	2036-37 percent full
Cedar Park	2,400	2,318	1,786	74%
Glenn	2,400	1,864	2,705	113%
Leander	2,400	2,112	1,794	75%
Rouse	2,400	2,515	2,495	104%
Vandegrift	2,900	2,301	1,378	48%
Vista Ridge	2,400	2,342	1,535	64%

Source: PASA fall 2026 demographic study, middle and high school tables.¹³

• In 2036-37, the four crowded schools would be over by about 740 students in total (our math).²
• The other schools would have about 6,740 empty seats (our math).²
• Growth is in the north. The study says new students will mostly live in the Danielson, Leander and Wiley middle school zones.⁴

The other side

• Forecasts miss. The district’s past forecasts have run above actual counts. See how past forecasts compared.
• Empty seats are not always in the right place. A seat across the district does not help a crowded school unless zones change.
• Capacity numbers are design figures. Portables, schedules and programs can change how many students a school can really hold.
• Some students are not counted in these tables. About 534 students in programs with no set capacity, such as the early college high school, are left out of our percents (our math).¹³²

Questions to ask

• How does the board decide when to redraw middle and high school zones?
• How will the district decide whether to add space in the north or move students?

Changes to this page

• Nov. 2, 2026: Rewrote the questions to ask so each is open, neutral and addressed to the public body.

What we still don’t know

• How many portable classrooms each school uses now.
• How the forecast would change if home building speeds up or slows down.

Footnotes

1. PASA, Fall 2026 demographic study, in the Leander ISD board packet for Oct. 29, 2026, page 104, “Projected Enrollment and Utilization by Middle School Campus.” Total capacity 11,514; total students 9,927 (2026-27) and 8,731 (2036-37), each including 10 students in programs with no set capacity. Packet page 104. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷

2. Our math. Middle: (9,927 − 10) ÷ 11,514 = 86%; (8,731 − 10) ÷ 11,514 = 76%. High: (13,976 − 524) ÷ 14,900 = 90%; (12,217 − 524) ÷ 14,900 = 78%. Over capacity in 2036-37: Danielson 138 + Stiles 198 + Glenn 305 + Rouse 95 = 736. Empty seats at the other schools: middle 814 + 394 + 439 + 649 + 77 + 423 + 333 = 3,129; high 614 + 606 + 1,522 + 865 = 3,607; total 6,736. Programs with no set capacity: 10 + 524 = 534. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵

3. Same study, page 107, “Projected Enrollment and Utilization by High School Campus.” Total capacity 14,900; total students 13,976 (2026-27) and 12,217 (2036-37), each including 524 students in programs with no set capacity. Packet page 107. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

4. Same study, page 102, “Projected Resident Students by Middle School Attendance Zone,” 2036-37. Packet page 102. ↩