Enrollment forecasts

Key facts

• Budgets that planned for more students than came: 3 of the last 3¹
• Size of each miss: about 600 to 700 students¹
• Students counted in Sept. 2026: 41,143²
• Peak year so far: 2024-25, with 42,608³
• Newest outside forecast: about 40,100 students in 2036-37 (a projection)⁴

In short

Each budget plans on an estimate of how many students will come. For three years in a row, fewer came, by about 600 to 700 students each time.¹ The district counted 41,143 students in Sept. 2026.² The peak so far was 42,608 in 2024-25.³ On the same state count, fall 2025 had 41,953 students. That is 655 fewer than the peak, about 1.5% (our math).³

Why it matters to your tax bill: state money and staffing follow students, so a wrong estimate can leave a budget hole.

Related: forecast record · school capacity · demographer · closures · Oct. 2026 report

A school budget starts with one estimate. How many students will show up? State money depends on students. So does the number of teachers.

Think of planning a party. You buy food for the guests you expect. If fewer come, you spent too much.

Three budgets, three misses

Each spring, the district picks a number. Then it builds the budget on it. In the fall, it counts the students who came.

School year	Budget planned for	Fall count	Gap
2024-25	43,3165	42,608	708 fewer
2025-26	42,448	41,862	586 fewer
2026-27	41,841	41,143	698 fewer

Sources: notes 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7. The gaps are our math.

The 2025-26 count depends on who you ask. The PASA study gives 41,862 on one page and 41,852 on another. Both come from the district’s Sept. 2025 data. The state (TEA) count is 41,953. We used 41,862.⁶

For 2026-27, staff also showed the board a smaller number, 40,794.⁷ That was the only number on record that came in below the real count. The board’s budget plan used 41,841.⁸ That is the same number PASA’s October 2026 report lists as its forecast, compared there with PASA’s own count of 41,116 (see enrollment update oct 2026).

The outside forecasts

The district uses an outside firm called PASA to forecast students. PASA gives a low, a middle and a high case.

For 2023-24, even PASA’s low case was too high. It said 43,190. The real count was 42,589.⁹

Each new study has lowered the long-term number:⁴

Study	Forecast about 10 years out
Fall 2024	44,474
Fall 2025	43,250
Fall 2026	40,120

These are projections, not counts.

In its newest study, PASA lists why it missed.¹⁰ About 800 fewer homes were built than it expected. New homes had fewer children. New charter schools opened nearby.

Who makes the forecasts

The district hired Population and Survey Analysts (PASA) in May 2021. Two firms applied. PASA scored 98.4 points and the other scored 62.4.¹¹ From 2020-21 to 2025-26, the district paid PASA about $643,000 in total, about $91,000 to $119,000 a year.¹²

How close were they?

In 2021-22, PASA’s middle forecast was 5.8% too high, about 2,400 students. The district’s own budget number that year was only 0.5% high. From 2023-24 to 2026-27, every PASA case and every adopted budget number we found was too high. Only one staff option, for 2026-27, came in under.¹³

The other side: home building, births and charter schools all move the numbers, and PASA names these in its own list of misses.¹⁰ PASA gives a range, and the district picks its own budget number. In 2021-22 that budget number was close.¹³

Why it matters

A budget built for more students can plan for more state money than comes in. See Reserves and deficit. Student counts also drive talk of full and empty schools.

Questions to ask

• Which forecast will the district use for the next budget?
• How does the board review a forecast before the budget uses it?

Changes to this page

• Nov. 2, 2026: We now call the district’s student counts estimates, not guesses.
• Nov. 2, 2026: Rewrote the questions to ask so each is open, neutral and addressed to the public body.
• Nov. 2, 2026: Added questions to ask.
• Nov. 2, 2026: We checked every figure against its source. We reworded the other-side points so they stick to what the sources show.

What you can do or watch next

• Watch the next forecast from the district’s demographer, usually presented each year.

What we still don’t know

• We do not know which forecast the next budget will use.

Numbers marked “our math” are our estimates, not official figures. The notes show the inputs and the steps.

Footnotes

1. Our math from notes 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7. ↩ ↩² ↩³

2. Board packet, Oct. 15, 2026, page 151, “Projected Enrollment vs. Actual Enrollment”: 41,841 projected vs. 41,143 actual on 9/15/26, a gap of (698). Packet page 151. ↩ ↩²

3. PASA study in the board packet, Oct. 23, 2025, packet page 87. Counts by other dates differ a little. For example, the state’s count for fall 2025 is 41,953 (PASA, Oct. 29, 2026 packet). Page 87 says: “District Enrollment (10/28/2024) = 42,608.” This matches the state’s PEIMS fall-2024 enrollment count (TEA 2024-25 report card, p.28); the report card’s ‘membership’ count is 42,507. ↩ ↩² ↩³

4. Projections from PASA’s “most likely” case. Fall 2024 study: 44,474 for 2034 (Oct. 24, 2024 packet, page 101). Fall 2025 study: 43,250 for 2035-36 (Oct. 23, 2025 packet, page 103). Fall 2026 study: 40,120 for 2036-37 (Oct. 29, 2026 packet, page 95). ↩ ↩²

5. Board packet, June 27, 2024, page 9: enrollment of 43,316 for the 2024-25 budget. Packet page 9. ↩

6. PASA study in the board packet, Oct. 23, 2025, page 72: enrollment grew “to 41,862 in 2025–26.” Packet page 72. The same study’s page 103 shows “*41,852,” with “District enrollment data submitted 9/17/2025.” The two numbers differ by 10. We use the page 72 number. ↩

7. Board packet, Jan. 8, 2026: staff’s reduced case of 40,794 for 2026-27, page 18. Packet page 18. ↩

8. 2025-26: Leander ISD, 2025-26 Official Budget Book, page 13: 42,448 for 2025-26, “Projected by Demographer.” Local copy of the page. Also in the June 19, 2025 packet, page 8. 2026-27: board packet, Jan. 22, 2026, page 258: “Student enrollment of 41,841; projected growth model.” Packet page 258. The board approved these budget assumptions 4–1. ↩

9. PASA in the board packet, Oct. 26, 2023, page 141: for 2023-24, low 43,190, moderate 43,423, high 43,786; actual 42,589. Packet page 141. ↩

10. PASA study in the board packet for Oct. 29, 2026, page 93. Packet page 93. ↩ ↩²

11. Board packet, May 20, 2021: demographer selection under the Mar. 26, 2021 request for proposals. ↩

12. District check register, fiscal 2020-21 to 2025-26: $90,740; $98,000; $105,800; $113,300; $116,600; $118,900. Our total $643,340. ↩

13. PASA studies and district budgets, 2021-22 to 2026-27. 2021-22: PASA middle case 43,951 vs. 41,543 counted (2,408 high, 5.8%); budget 41,749 (0.5% high). 2023-24: PASA low, middle and high cases 43,190, 43,423 and 43,786 vs. 42,589. 2026-27: staff option 40,794 vs. 41,143. Our math. ↩ ↩²